We live in a day and age when some of the games best and brightest stars strike out more than 180 times in a season. Heck, Shohei Ohtani struck out 189 times en route to his 2021 AL MVP award.
MLB’s average strikeout rate climbed to 24 percent in 2021, with 37 qualified hitters owning strikeout rates higher than the league average.
That’s why people tend to take notice when a player does the polar opposite of the norm — especially a rookie.
In addition to reaching base 15 times in his first four games, an MLB record, Guardians rookie Steven Kwan also saw 116 pitches before his first swing and miss. He reached base in 19 of his first 29 plate appearances with eight walks and one — yes, one! — strikeout.
It had been just six games, but Kwan entered Friday hitting .526 with five RBIs, seven runs, a 1.392 OPS and a 98 percent contact rate.
Though leading the league in anything over the first week carries only slightly more meaning than spring training stats, Kwan entered Friday ranked first in on-base percentage (.655), contact rate and average, second in walk rate (27.6 percent), fifth in runs and OPS, and eighth in slugging percentage (.737). He also had the lowest strikeout rate (3.4 percent) in the majors.
Kwan, a fifth-round pick in the 2018 draft, was the most added fantasy player this week in ESPN leagues (76.4 percent owned), so fantasy managers have taken notice of his incredible skill set. The real question: Can he have sustained success in the majors beyond the unsustainable numbers he produced in his first week?
Kwan is obviously not going to hit .500 (or better). Despite hitting 12 homers between Double-A and Triple-A last year, he doesn’t appear to be a massive power threat (not with his 81.3 mph exit velocity, which ranks in the bottom 5 percent of the league, according to Statcast. He also is unlikely to reach double-digit stolen bases, despite having some speed (he stole 22 bases over three seasons at Oregon State University and 20 over 217 games in the minors).
That may not sound like a ringing endorsement, but there is plenty that makes Roto Rage believe he can be a viable fantasy option, starting with his ability to make a ton of a contact and get on base — and that’s a trait we can trace back to college.
In three years at Oregon State University, the 24-year-old hit .329 with 96 runs and a .849 OPS while walking 82 times and striking out just 38 times over 156 games. Over three seasons in the minors, Kwan hit .301 with 142 runs and a .818 OPS while walking 100 times and striking out 87 times in 217 games.
The other huge positive working in Kwan’s favor: opportunity. Not only has he come from seemingly out of nowhere to become an everyday player, he is now the Guardians’ No. 2 hitter. That means he’s hitting one spot ahead of Jose Ramirez, one of the best players in the game.
Some might draw comparisons to the likes of Akil Baddoo or Yermin Mercedes, rookies who got off to hot starts in 2021, and that is understandable. But Kwan appears to be a different, more consistent animal. His on-base skill set appears to be elite, and those are the numbers that cannot be ignored as the ability to hit for average, get on base, score runs and avoid outs are valuable in every single fantasy format.
Kwan may not be the flashiest player, but if he can keep up even half of what he has done over his first week in the bigs, he’ll continue to be a fantasy asset.
Another player off to a hot start, who remains available in more than 50 percent of ESPN leagues despite being the fourth-most added player this week (and has multi-positon eligibility), is Colorado’s Connor Joe. He hit .333 with two homers, three RBIs, seven runs and a 1.073 OPS over his first six games, and that has nothing to do with Coors Field. Though he is hitting .313 with a homer, two RBIs, a stolen base and a .889 OPS in four home games, he is hitting .375 with one homer, one RBI, four runs, three walks, three strikeout and a 1.421 OPS on the road. Roto Rage believes he is approaching must-add territory.
Big Hits
Tylor Megill SP, Mets
Did not allow an earned run over his first two starts (both wins), striking out 11, walking none and limiting opponents to hitting .177 against him. He was the most added pitcher in ESPN leagues this week.
Nolan Arenado 3B, Cardinals
Entered Friday with a hit in each of his first five games, going 8-for-20 (.400) with three homers, nine RBIs, five runs and a 1.429 OPS.
Sean Manaea SP, Padres
Ranked third in the majors in opponent average (.095) while maintaining a 1.38 ERA, 13-3 strikeout-walk rate and 0.538 WHIP in his first two starts.
Myles Straw OF, Guardians
After six games, not only was he leading the league in runs (nine) and stolen bases (four), but he was hitting .360 with a 19.4 percent walk rate.
Big Whiffs
Robbie Ray SP, Mariners
After allowing just one run on three hits over seven innings in his first start, he allowed six runs on 10 hits (including three homers) in his second start. He is striking out 6.1 per nine innings and walking 4.1 per nine.
Dansby Swanson SS, Braves
Struck out a league-high 14 times over his first eight games while going 4-for-28 (.143) with two RBIs, two runs scored and a .440 OPS.
Kyle Schwarber 1B/OF, Phillies
Went 2-for-4 on Opening Day, but was 1-for-23 (.044) with an RBI, 10 strikeouts, three walks and a .241 OPS in his next six games.
Max Fried SP, Braves
The lefty allowed seven earned runs over his first 11 innings (5.73 ERA), going 0-2 with a 1.455 WHIP.
CHECK SWINGS
- Miami’s Jesus Luzardo, owned in just 31.6 percent of ESPN leagues, made a short but impactful season debut. Over five innings against the Angels, he allowed one run on two hits while walking one and striking out 12. Keep an eye on him.
- Shane Bieber’s velocity is down about 2-3 mph, but he has a 2.70 ERA (2.12 FIP, which is a sign of a little bad luck), 5.4 percent walk rate and has limited opponents to a .118 average over his first two starts.
- So, Clayton Kershaw was pulled seven innings into a perfect game, throwing just 80 pitches. He had a 23.8 percent swinging strike rate and struck out 61.9 percent of the batters he faced. He struck out 13, including 11 with an insane 41.5 percent swinging strike rate with his slider. It was a vintage effort for the three-time Cy Young winner. Now he just has to stay healthy.
Team Name of the Week
Grandal Illusion
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