Each time Aaron Judge homers this season — and as of Friday that was more often than anyone else in the majors — a baseball parlor game breaks out in the cesspool. Sorry, I mean on social media, where two themes resonate:
1. Judge’s gamble not to take the Yankees’ spring extension offer is praised.
2. The Yankees are lectured to just pay Judge whatever he wants.
To date, No. 1 is true: Judge’s gamble is working out better than he could have scripted. But that previous sentence came with the addendum, “to date,” which screams that the Yankees are not going to just send a blank check Judge’s way. Because at this point, the Yankees have lost that little thing called leverage, and why initiate a negotiation with no leverage?
The Yankees may as well now wait to see if Judge actually plays the last two-thirds of this season as healthily and brilliantly as he has the first third. They may as well wait to gauge in free agency whether — even off a great season — other organizations really are going to put blinders on about Judge’s injury history, wonder how someone his size will age and speculate whether he would be worth as much elsewhere in marketing as he has been with the franchise that drafted him. They also can try to get a better read on whether Judge is just bluffing that he is willing to play elsewhere, or if he is more Derek Jeter and his goal is to maximize dollars, but never leave The Bronx.
The two sides do not even know exactly what Judge will be paid in 2022. He is the last arbitration case scheduled, for June 22, with the slugger requesting $21 million and the team offering $17 million. One of the few recent financial breaks the Yankees have received in this relationship is that the three arbitrators cannot consider Judge’s 2022 performance in setting his 2022 salary. Of course, even if only mild baseball fans, the arbitrators will have some awareness of Judge’s production — so let the subliminal fun begin.
More vitally for Judge is that he is accruing arguments for his larger case in free agency. He has performed like an MVP while maintaining a Ruthian 60-homer pace in a season in which homers are being hit at their lowest percentage in eight seasons, likely because of a deader baseball. If homers are more rare, those who hit them become worth more.
Here is one for Judge that might be less noticeable: Despite the knee-jerk complaints that long-term contracts do not work out, many of those with sizable pacts are dominating the sport this year. I wonder if this again is a reflection on the less lively baseball — essentially that not every Tom, Dick and eighth-place hitter can amass good numbers now. Will this make position stars even more valuable if the deader ball is here to stay?
The top three in Wins Above Replacement (Fangraphs) among qualified hitters entering the weekend were Mookie Betts (in the second year of his 12-year, $365 million pact), Manny Machado (fourth year of his 10-year, $300 million pact) and Jose Ramirez, who would have received way more than $141 million (over seven years) if he had been willing to leave Cleveland.
The next two on the list are Judge and Boston’s Rafael Devers, who both turned down extension bids before this season — and who both can anticipate much more now. Then comes Mike Trout (fourth year of 12 years at $426.5 million), Paul Goldschmidt (third year of five at $130 million) and Nolan Arenado (fourth year of eight at $260 million). Francisco Lindor (first year of 10 at $340 million) was 13th in WAR, Freddie Freeman (first of six at $162 million) is 17th, Bryce Harper (fourth of 13 at $330 million) 23rd, J.D. Martinez (fifth of five at $110 million) 24th and George Springer (second of six at $150 million) 27th.
Now a few provisos. Almost every one of those players signed at an age younger than Judge, who turned 30 in April, is now. Also, Albert Pujols last year and Robinson Cano twice this season have been released during 10-year, $240 million pacts, plus Miguel Cabrera certainly is not performing to what he is still being paid through next season on his eight-year, $248 million pact.
Conversely, when it works best, players outperform their contracts early, which makes the back end more tolerable. Additionally, are advances in sports science and greater understanding of nutrition, sleep, mental health, hydration and flexibility opening a door for players to perform well longer? Judge, for example, changed his regimen after the 2020 season to further emphasize flexibility and had played in 197 of 213 Yankees games since the beginning of last year.
Goldschmidt and Martinez, both in their age-34 season, might be having their best career years — they were leading their respective leagues in hitting. Arenado at 31, and Freeman and Springer at 32 are excelling. Judge, like Springer, will become a free agent after his age-30 season and, like Springer, has expanded his value by showing he can handle center field. (Springer did spend a good deal of the first year of his pact injured.)
For the most part, these thirty-somethings are the kind of corner/DH types the sport has been rejecting or tamping down for long-term deals, yet who have retained high value.
The success of this class of players should arm Judge with more negotiating ammo if he maintains his health and performance through this year. He can counter questions about his size by noting his athleticism (he is a better center fielder than Aaron Hicks) and his dedication to keep working on his body. Judge falls into the serious-minded, complete player category with players such as Arenado, Betts, Freeman and Goldschmidt,
It was generally believed that a contract in the Arenado realm might have gotten an extension done in spring (the Yankees offered seven years at a total of $213.5 million). It might not get it done now, which is why the Yankees are probably best served just waiting it out at this point.
Once extension talks concluded, the Yankees were always going to be in the weird space of rooting for their best player on a team with title dreams to thrive, though that could make their extension bid obsolete. That is happening and, combined with the performance of starry contemporaries and the dead ball, pretty much everything is coming up dollar signs for Judge.
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