Stephen Strasburg will make his first Major League start in more than a year on Thursday night as the Washington Nationals take on the Miami Marlins at LoanDepot Park. The game begins at 6:40 p.m. ET.
Seeing the Marlins as -145 favorites in a matchup against Strasburg certainly takes some getting used to, but considering where Strasburg is at in his career and where the Nationals are at in the grand scheme of Major League Baseball, the line makes more than enough sense.
Over the last few years, the Marlins have proven to be one of baseball’s best organizations at developing young pitchers, and Trevor Rogers looked like he was on his way to becoming one of their aces. Rogers was named as an All-Star in 2021 and finished second in the voting for NL Rookie of the Year after posting a 2.64 ERA in 133 innings pitched.
Things have not gone as smoothly for the 24-year-old southpaw in 2022.
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Nationals vs. Marlins odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Spread: WAS +1.5 (-175) vs. MIA -1.5 (+145)
Moneyline: WAS (+120) vs. MIA (-145)
Total: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Nationals vs. Marlins probable pitchers
Stephen Strasburg (0.00) vs. Trevor Rogers (5.80)
Nationals vs. Marlins prediction
While the rest of Miami’s rotation has continued to ascend, Rogers has posted a 5.80 ERA, 5.28 xERA, and 4.62 xFIP in 45 innings pitched. Those numbers point to some positive regression coming for Rogers, but it’s not like he’s been terribly unlucky. Rogers ranks below average in terms of Average Exit Velocity (39th percentile), Barrel Rate (23rd percentile), strikeout rate (30th percentile), and chase rate (34th percentile).
Washington’s offense has sputtered for most of the season, and the Nats don’t hit lefties all that well, but they should have some scoring opportunities against a pitcher who is struggling to get outs at the moment.
It’s pretty hard to project how Strasburg will perform in his first start in over a year, but you can imagine that it will take a few starts for the former World Series MVP to find his form.
Additionally, he’ll be taking on a Marlins offense that has done a superb job against right-handed pitching this season. The Fish rank third in wOBA and fourth in wRC+ against righties this season.
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Additionally, you’d have to expect Strasburg to have a relatively short hook. Strasburg threw 83 pitches in six innings in his last rehab start, so look for him to be given that kind of runway against the Marlins on Thursday.
No matter how he pitches, you can expect the Nationals bullpen to get plenty of work against the Fish, and that’s not a great thing for the Nats, as they boast the fifth-worst bullpen WHIP and ERA this season.
With Rogers, Strasburg, and a shaky Nationals bullpen all on shaky footing, this game has the right recipes for a play on the Over 8.5.
Nationals vs. Marlins pick
Over 8.5 (-110) — BetMGM
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