Only six games fill out today’s Major League Baseball schedule, but expert bettors have still identified a few opportunities.
All the information about to be presented is drawn from the Action Network PRO Report, which provides betting percentages and five “signals” — sharp money, big money, PRO systems, model edge and expert picks — that help distinguish certain plays.
Only one game triggers at least three of the above signals, but two more with two signals have interesting trends. With that in mind, let’s dive into the recommendations.
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Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians, 7:10 p.m. ET
Much like with the above matchup, expert bettors are flocking to the total in this American League showdown.
The total opened at nine runs, but we’ve tracked sharp action coming in on the over that has seen it rise to 9.5 runs at most shops. A few books have stayed at nine runs, but have increased the juice to -120 or even -125.
Additionally, big money bettors are gravitating to the over as well. As of this writing, we’ve seen the over receive only 37 percent of all bets against 67 percent of the total handle. That qualifies as the second-largest percentage discrepancy on today’s card.
Rangers at Guardians PRO Report Pick
Total Over 9.5 Runs (-105) — Caesars
New York Mets at San Diego Padres, 9:40 p.m. ET
These two National League contenders will begin a three-game series tonight and bettors are expecting some defense.
We’ve tracked sharp action coming in on the under, which opened at 7.5 runs but has since ticked down to seven runs at most shops. The good news – bettors brave enough to bet the latter number will be able to get +110 while the former can still be found anywhere between -110 and -120.
Big money bettors are also interested in the under. As of this writing, we’ve seen the under receive only 33 percent of all bets against 44 percent of the total handle.
Find out more about New York sports betting
Lastly, there’s one Action Network PRO system — Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams — supporting this under. That system, which looks for bet percentages under 35 percent in games featuring two teams with winning records, has a 55 percent historical win rate and eight percent return on investment.
Mets at Padres PRO Report Pick
Under 7.5 Runs (-115) — FanDuel
Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals, 8:10 p.m. ET
This represents the third and final total experts bettors have gravitated toward with four signals triggering for one side.
The total opened at 9.5 runs in Kansas City, but we’ve tracked both sharp and big money coming in on the under. As of this writing, the under has seen only 31 percent of all bets against 57 percent of the total handle. That qualifies as the third-largest percentage discrepancy on today’s board.
Additionally, there’s a model projection edge with this total. According to Action Network MLB power ratings, the total should be set closer to 9.04 runs, giving bettors nearly a half-run of wiggle room. Lastly, one top MLB betting expert from The Action Network is backing the under to round out the four signals going in its favor.
Blue Jays at Royals PRO Report Pick
Under 10 Runs (-115) — BetMGM
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