The last few weeks have featured fights where one boxer is a large favorite. That’s not the case on Saturday night when WBC lightweight champion Devin Haney (27-0, 15 KOs) faces WBA, IBF and WBO lightweight champion George Kambosos Jr. (20-0, 10 KOs).
Oddsmakers have installed Haney as a -165 favorite, while betters can get Kambosos at +140 with the fight ending in a draw +1600 on BetMGM. Unless a ton of late money comes in on Kambosos, this will be the third time in five fights that he closes as the betting underdog.
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Overview
Kambosos was coming off two uninspiring split-decision wins over Mickey Bey and Lee Selby before he shocked the world by upsetting Teofimo Lopez as a +600 underdog. Not known as a hard puncher, half of Kambosos’ 20 career wins have gone to the judge’s scorecards, including four of his last five fights.
Haney enters Saturday’s fight as Ring Magazine’s No. 2 ranked lightweight. Haney won the WBC lightweight title with a dominant stoppage win over Zaur Abdullaev and has defended the belt successfully four times. He has 15 knockouts on his record but his last four fights have gone the distance.
Oddsmakers aren’t expecting this fight to end early. The odds of Haney-Kambosos going the distance are -300, while the total rounds is set at 11 with the over juiced to -350. Both fighters are +500 to win by stoppage.
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How to Bet Kambosos-Haney
Past history and the odds are saying this fight will go the full 12 rounds on Saturday night. So what is the best way to profit from the bout? One thing to keep in mind is Kambosos is fighting in front of his home crowd in Melbourne. In what should be a razor close fight, I see value on Kambosos +280 to win on points over the more highly-regarded Haney.
While not a heavy puncher, Kambosos applies a lot of pressure. Kambosos beat Lopez by split decision because he dominated late, out-landing his opponent 41-16 in the final two rounds. The Australian will likely force the issue in this matchup and in front of 60,000 screaming fans, that can sway the judges in a close fight.
Haney was expected to be without two key members in his corner. Bill Haney, Devin’s father and lead trainer, was originally denied entry into Australia, as was trainer Ben Davison. However, Bill Haney was granted a last-minute visa and will arrive in Australia just in time for the fight .
Haney is the more skilled fighter with a three-inch reach advantage. There is certainly a scenario where Haney out-boxes Kambosos for 12 rounds and earns a decision victory. Kambosos has the most impressive win of the two over Lopez. Overall though, Haney has faced tougher competition in his career with victories over Yuriorkis Gamboa, Jorge Linares and Joseph Diaz.
Still, there are just too many variables that point to Kambosos winning a decision and at +280, that’s the wager I like most. I also don’t hate betting on a draw. Everything suggests this will be a highly competitive fight that goes the distance. Throwing a few bucks on it to end in a draw at +1600 isn’t a bad idea either.
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