The NBA Finals begin Thursday and the two inaugural winners of the conference championship MVP trophies are the favorites to win Finals MVP.
NBA Finals MVP odds, picks
Stephen Curry, who leads the Golden State Warriors in scoring this postseason, is the -110 favorite to win the award at BetMGM. Curry has come up short of the MVP in his three previous Finals wins — Andre Iguodala won in 2015, and Kevin Durant won in 2017 and 2018.
Jayson Tatum, who also leads his Boston Celtics in scoring in the playoffs, is just behind Curry at +170. The drop-off from the two superstars to the second tier of players is steep. Jaylen Brown is listed at 11/1 entering Game 1, while Klay Thompson and Draymond Green are both 18/1 to take home the award.
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In the next tier, key players who have come up big throughout the playoffs for both teams are all long shots to win: Jordan Poole (35/1), Marcus Smart (40/1), Andrew Wiggins (40/1) and Al Horford (100/1).
It’s not out of the realm of possibility for one of those players to take home the hardware if their team wins the series. In the past 20 seasons, three players — Chauncey Billups (2004), Kawhi Leonard (2014) and Iguodala (2015) — won Finals MVP despite not leading their team in scoring.
A bet on favorites Curry or Tatum certainly makes sense. Both players need to perform well for their teams to win the title. However, in markets like these, it’s also wise to take a shot on a player with longer odds too. As already mentioned, Curry has yet to be named Finals MVP, despite playing a huge role in all three of Golden State’s title runs.
So, who is worth throwing a few bucks on to win NBA Finals MVP beyond Curry and Tatum? One player for each team sticks out.
Klay Thompson (18/1)
There’s no question Curry is the most important player on the Warriors’ roster, but Golden State is at its best when Thompson is playing well, too. Not only is Thompson a deadly outside shooter, but also he’s underrated on the defensive end of the court.
Thompson is averaging just under 20 points in the postseason. If that scoring increases a bit during the Finals and he hits a couple of key shots late in games, he will be in the MVP discussion.
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Marcus Smart (40/1)
Smart has long been one of the top defensive players in the NBA. He was finally recognized for his efforts this April by being named the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year. Led by Smart, Boston had the top-rated defense in the league during the regular season.
Smart is crucial to the Celtics beating Golden State in the Finals. If Curry and Thompson go off from 3-point range, Boston doesn’t stand a chance. Smart will need to slow down at least one of them and if he’s successful, the underdog Celtics could pull off the upset. During his eight seasons in the NBA, Smart has held Curry to just 29 percent shooting when he’s been the closest defender.
The other reason to like Smart at 40/1 is that he’s more than just a defensive stopper. He has scored 15 points or more in over half of Boston’s playoff games. If Smart averages 15 points and makes life miserable for the Golden State guards in a Celtics series win, he might get the nod for Finals MVP.
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