MLB Monday has a bit of a lighter slate than usual but that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty to bet on.
For today’s games, we will be focusing on the Mariners vs. Astros and Mets vs. Padres.
Each of these teams are contenders to make the playoffs and maybe even a World Series appearance.
Overall, player prop bets have become increasingly popular in baseball, especially with Same-Game-Parlays on FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars, just to name a few.
Perhaps, tonight’s player prop bets for Jake Cronenworth and Robbie Ray can be an added leg for your bets or a standalone bet too.
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Best MLB player prop bets for Monday
Mets vs. Padres: Jake Cronenworth 2+ runs scored +1100 (FanDuel)
Big odds here for the hottest hitter on the Padres by a mile. After a really slow start, the Padres’ No. 2-hitter has home runs in two straight games. This could be where Cronenworth starts playing like the caliber player he showed in 2020 when the advanced stats loved him. That year he ranked in the top 2 percent in xBA (expected batting average) and top 9 percent in xSLG (expected slugging percentage), which are formulated using exit velocity per BaseballSavant.
This year, Cronenworth has been unlucky on batted balls in play (BABIP). This could be because his chase rate is way too high. He chases a lot of balls out of the zone, so the reason that these odds are so long is that he doesn’t really walk a lot.
Currently, he owns a .261 BABIP which is slightly lower than expected (around .300). His barrel percentages could definitely be better and his hard-hit rate is less than ideal.
All of these things scream why the odds are +1100. However, his last few games, combined with some expected positive regression, historically great exit velocities, and hitting second for a solid Padres lineup are all reasons why this is an excellent value spot.
This is worth a bet down to +975 but not any lower than that.
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Robbie Ray ‘over’ 5.5 strikeouts -110 (BetMGM)
Big Robbie Ray fan over here as he was an excellent bet during the season last year to win AL CY Young. Ray is a pure strikeout pitcher, who has struggled giving up home runs this season. However, he is still striking out 27 percent of the batters he faces and while his walks are up from last year, they are down from his prior career norms.
Advanced metrics say that those home runs are a bit fluky. Ray actually has a better launch angle this year than he did last year (14.9 vs. 15.7). Moreover, his hard-hit percentage is down rather substantially, 43.1 percent in 2021 versus 40.5 percent this year.
Overall, Ray is still a very solid pitcher and while the Astros have a top-tier lineup, this is an overreaction. The Astros do strike out the fifth-least in baseball, just 7.5 times per game. Ray has been over this number in five straight starts, including nine strikeouts of the Mets who strike out the sixth-least amount of times in baseball (7.57).
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