Ball striking emphasized in Toronto

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Billy Horschel used a Saturday 65 to cruise to victory by four shots over Aaron Wise at The Memorial, his eighth career victory on tour.

Now, we head north of the border to the RBC Canadian Open at St. George’s Golf and Country Club. The event, which is being played for the first time since 2019, features a fairly strong field.

Scottie Scheffler (+800) leads the way on the odds board at BetMGM and is closely followed by Justin Thomas (+900) and Rory McIlroy (+1000). Other notables include Cameron Smith (+1200), Sam Burns (+1600), Matt Fitzpatrick and Shane Lowry (+1800).

But before we dive into our best bets for the event, we begin as always with key stats and our modeling strategy for the event. Without further delay, here’s what I’m emphasizing this week in Toronto.

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Stat #1 – Good Drives Gained (14 percent emphasis)

Correlated Stat – Fairways Gained (8 percent emphasis)

Like the 2019 RBC Canadian Open at Hamilton Golf & Country Club, this year’s track features very narrow fairways.

As a result, don’t expect players to attempt to bomb their way around this Par 70 that measures just north of 7,000 yards. Rather, expect more plotting around the course as players attempt to avoid the rough that is lined with trees.

The track is also protected by heavy bunkering — 104 total on the entire course — and penal rough, so players will have to avoid these traps with their tee shots.

That’s why I’m placing a combined 22 percent emphasis on the tee shot alone. I either want players to hit the fairway — the first element of “good drives gained” — or be in solid enough position to reach it from the rough — the second element of “good drives gained.

Here are the leaders in good drives gained over their last 24 rounds:

1. Martin Laird (+15000)
2. J.J. Spaun (+10000)
3. Shane Lowry (+1800)
4. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1800)
5. Adam Long (+8000)

Odds provided by BetMGM

Stat #2 – Strokes-Gained: Approach (22 percent emphasis)

Correlated Stat – Sand Saves (5 percent emphasis)

Now for the staple of the model — approach play.

Just like virtually every week on tour, players will need to produce accurate approaches into a challenging set of greens. Each individual green varies in size, but the common thread amongst the set of 18 is that all are undulating and feature moguls that create changes in slope.

Just like on the fairways, bunkers will protect these surfaces and force a finer precision from players. Club superintendent Ian McQueen adds St. George’s is definitely a second-shot golf course.

“Off the tee it’s pretty forgiving, but the greens are dynamic and small and surrounded by bunkers and thick rough,” McQueen told PGATour.com.

That brings in the correlated stat — sand saves — in the event players miss the green and need to get up and down from the bunkers to avoid bogey or worse.

Here are the leaders in strokes-gained: approach over the last 24 rounds:

1. Scottie Scheffler (+800)
2. Shane Lowry (+1800)
3. Cameron Smith (+1200)
4. Rory McIlroy (+900)
5. Sam Burns (+1200)

Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook

Scottie Scheffler

Getty Images

Stat #3 – Opportunities Gained (10 percent emphasis)

Correlated Stat – Birdies or Better Gained (7 percent emphasis)

Historically, the RBC Canadian Open has featured winners with very low cumulative scores.

In 2019, Rory McIlroy won the event at -22 for the week. The last time this event was played at St. George’s Golf & Country Club (2010), Carl Pettersson won at -14 with 12 players reaching double-digits under par for the week.

Based on those trends, I expect we’ll see a winner in the mid-teens this week. Thus, gaining opportunities on the field will prove a crucial stat in terms of separating the winner from the challengers.

I’ve also included birdies or better gained as a correlated stat because of the high eagle rate at this course. None of the three par 5’s on the course are particularly long — two-measure at less than 540 yards — so players should be able to reach the green in two fairly easily, assuming they hit the fairway.

With that in mind, here are the opportunities gained by leaders over the last 24 rounds:

1. Justin Thomas (+1200)
2. Cameron Smith (+1500)
3. Scottie Scheffler (+1000)
4. Rory McIlroy (+1200)
5. Chris Kirk (+9900)

Odds provided by WynnBET

Rory McIlroy

Getty Images

Stat #4 – Three-Putt Avoidance (7 percent emphasis)

Correlated Stats – Putting – 5 to 10 feet (5 percent emphasis), Putting – 10 to 15 feet (5 percent emphasis)

As previously mentioned, these greens are varying in size and feature a number of undulations.

Plus, it’s expected that, in anticipation of the U.S. Open next week at The Country Club, the greens will run pretty quick on the stimpmeter. Those two factors alone should earn players’ attention with the flat stick as they seek to take advantage of earned opportunities.

Combine that with the fact this course should see a low-scoring winner and I want my model to include players that avoid three-putts that could slow momentum on a round from an unnecessary bogey.

Here are the leaders in three-putt avoidance over the last 24 rounds:

1. Cameron Smith (+1200)
2. Vince Whaley (+15000)
3. Ricky Barnes (+50000)
4. Greg Chalmers (+40000)
5. Ryan Armour (+12500)

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Key Stat #5 – Strokes-Gained: Par 5’s (10 percent emphasis)

Correlated Stat – SG: Par 4’s – 450 to 500 yards (5 percent emphasis)

Put simply – these par 5’s are super gettable and should decide the winner of the tournament.

In the 2010 RBC Canadian Open at this venue, winner Carl Pettersson combined to shoot -10 on the three par 5’s, while runner-up Dean Wilson and third-placed Luke Donald only played the par 5’s to -6 and -5, respectively, for the week.

But, in addition to the three par 5’s, St. George’s possesses seven par 4’s that stretch beyond 450 yards with four of those holes coming in at over 470 yards on the scorecard. Given those four specific holes all rank among the five-hardest holes on the course, I’m using the correlated stat to include players that, at least historically, play those hole types well.

That said, here are the leaders in strokes-gained: par 5’s over the last 24 rounds:

1. Sam Burns (+1600)
2. Keith Mitchell (+5000)
3. Justin Thomas (+900)
4. Cameron Smith (+1200)
5. Cameron Percy (+25000)

Ball striking emphasized in Toronto