It’s now a matter of when, not if, the Colorado Avalanche will advance to the Stanley Cup Final. Sure, the Edmonton Oilers are not done yet, but erasing a 3-0 series deficit to the best team in the NHL will take a miracle. The Oilers are +2000 to come back and win the series, while the Avs are -135 to win Game 4 and -220 to win the Stanley Cup.
Staring down a monumental task and with nothing to lose, it would not be a shocker to see the Oilers do everything they can to open things up in Game 4. The Avalanche proved over their past two wins they are fine gumming things up and winning ugly, but that style does not suit the Oilers. Instead, Edmonton’s best — and probably only chance — at getting back into this series is taking off the handbrake and hoping Connor McDavid does something spectacular.
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Avalanche vs. Oilers Game 4 odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Spread: COL -1.5 (+170) vs. EDM +1.5 (-200)
Moneyline: COL (-135) vs. EDM (+110)
Total: Over 7 (+110) | Under (-135)
Also see: Updated Stanley Cup odds
Avalanche vs. Oilers Game 4 prediction
That may sound like it’s playing right into Colorado’s hands, but the Oilers are one of a few teams who can at least hang with the Avs in a back-and-forth adventure. We saw it in Game 1, when the Oilers almost fought their way back from a four-goal deficit and had the Avalanche on their heels in the third period.
Although Edmonton was really good at 5-on-5 during Game 3, playing a rigid style of hockey just doesn’t suit the Oilers considering the spot they’re in right now. If this series was 2-1, sure, you could make the argument that Edmonton should keep trying to grind things down and muddy the waters.
But down 3-0, the onus is now on the Oilers to go out and beat the Avalanche. You can’t try and turn games into coin flips when you need to beat the Stanley Cup Favorites four times in a row.
For better or worse, Edmonton needs to throw caution to the wind.
That game script, an open game with the Oilers playing a loose style of hockey, is going against the market a bit. But that’s not a bad thing. After setting the Over/Under for Game 1 at 7.5 and watching 14 goals fly in, it seemed like this series was going to be an over bettor’s dream.
That wasn’t the case, however, as Games 2 and 3 went under pretty easily and oddsmakers have responded by juicing the Under 7 to -135. You would have been called crazy if you said you’d get a plus-money Over 7 in this series a few days ago.
On a related note, savvy punters may also want to go all-in on Connor McDavid props for Game 4. The Oilers have their backs against the wall, so it’s pretty likely that No. 97 will see a ton of ice time.
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McDavid is working on a postseason for the ages, so his coach will give him every opportunity to keep it going, or at the very least go out in style. You can get McDavid at +108 to score, +520 to score twice or if you want to play it a little closer to the vest, he’s -150 to go over 1.5 points.
Avalanche vs. Oilers Game 4 picks
Over 7 (+110) — BetMGM | Connor McDavid to score 2 goals (+550) — Caesars
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