Is there a better feeling than blindly throwing a dart and hitting the board?
Perhaps throwing two and hitting both. That was the case for us last week at the Memorial, which saw six players tied for the lead at the end of round one. Lucky for us, we had two of those players — Cameron Smith (+2600) and Luke List (+8000) — pegged in our column.
Hopefully, we’ll keep that momentum going into the RBC Canadian Open, as we present another quartet of picks to end Thursday as the first-round leader. All odds come courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.
Claim a Risk-Free First Bet up to $1,000
New customers only. Must be 21+. AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY only. Full T&C apply.
Up To $1500 Risk Free First Bet
New users only, 21 or older. NY, CO, DC, IA, IN, IL, MI, NV, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV only. Full T&Cs apply.
Bet $50 Get $200 in Free Bets
21+. New customers only. NY, AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV only. T&C apply
100% First Deposit Match up to $250 with promo code NYPBONUS
New players only, 21+. NY, NJ, MI, AZ, VA only. In order to participate in this promotion, the player needs to make a first deposit (of at least $10). Full T&C apply.
Bet $5, Get $200 in free bets – Win or Lose
21+. New customers only. NY, AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV only. T&C apply
Risk Free Bet Up to $1000 + One Free Month of Fubo TV
New users only, 21 or older. Available in IA, AZ only. Full T&C apply.
Bet $1 Get $200 in Bet Credits with NYP365
21+. New customers only. NJ only. Full T&C apply.
Bet $20, Get $100 in Free Bets
21+ & New Customers only. NJ & PA only. Full T&Cs apply.
Get a $250 First Deposit Match
21+, New Customers Only. NJ and CT only. Full T&Cs apply.
Canadian Open first-round leader pick 1: Corey Conners (+3100)
Conners flirted with the first-round lead last week at the Memorial by playing the first six holes at -5, but played the remainder of the round at +2 to lose that chance.
But, now he finds himself in his homeland and I believe he’s a solid bet to be the first-round leader. Not only does Conners rate out very well in my full-tournament model, but he also has strong underlying metrics in the opening round. Across his last 24 opening rounds on courses under 7,200 yards, Conners ranks out third in the field.
Although he’s outside the top-100 in both putting measures, he’s first in the field in both strokes-gained: approach and opportunities gained in those rounds. He’s also fifth in good drives gained, sixth in birdies or better gained and sixth in SG: par 4’s – 450 to 500 yards.
Plus, just in his last two tournaments on courses under 7,200 yards, Conners has played each opening round under-par, including at the RBC Heritage where he was tied for third at the end of day one.
Canadian Open first-round leader pick 2: Chris Kirk (+5000)
Whereas Conners is more volatile in his opening round metrics, Kirk has displayed steadier trends.
Across his last 24 opening rounds on courses under 7,200 yards, the Georgia Bulldog ranks out seventh overall in the field. That ranking is largely predicated on the fact Kirk is 25th or better in the field in five of 11 individual measures. Most notably, Kirk ranks out 2nd in good drives gained, 16th in fairways gained and 24th in both SG: approach and birdies or better gained.
Kirk also knows how to take advantage of the Par 5’s in his opening rounds as he’s 21st in the field in SG: Par 5’s across the last 24 qualifying rounds.
Further, Kirk is no stranger to finding his name near the top of the leaderboard Thursday night. He was tied for the opening-round lead a few weeks back at the Charles Schwab Challenge, and was only a shot off the pace this past February at the Honda Classic.
In fact, across his last six made-cuts on tour, Kirk has ended the first day T-11th or better in four events.
Canadian Open first-round leader pick 3: Jhonattan Vegas (+5500)
This is by far my most nervy selection, but there are positives to consider with Vegas this week.
Although he’s only 27th overall in the field across his last 24 opening rounds on courses under 7,200 yards, he’s an above-average 20th in good drives gained, ninth in SG: approach and 14th in both opportunities gained and birdies or better gained. Further, he’s 24th in SG: Par 4’s – 450 to 500 yards and is somewhat average (49th) in SG: Par 5’s.
Plus, he’s ninth on tour this season in first-round scoring and sixth in SG: ball striking over his last 24 opening rounds on courses under 7,200 yards.
Now, the concern is that Vegas ranks out 100th or worse in all of the following categories: putting – five to 10 feet (123rd), putting – 10 to 15 feet (138th), three-putt avoidance (121st) and sand saves (141st).
But, if Vegas can get a hot putter and replicate those ball-striking numbers, I give him a good chance to end Thursday atop the leaderboard. For that reason alone, +5500 is worth a flier.
Check out the best sports betting sites and apps
Canadian Open first-round leader pick 4: Brendon Todd (+8000)
Todd is the paragon of reliability when it comes to opening rounds on short courses.
Across his last 24 qualifying opening rounds, Todd ranks out ninth overall in this field. He sets the pace in good drives gained, is second in fairways gained and is a solid 22nd in SG: approach. Further, he’s a strong player at avoiding three-putts (12th) and is good coming out of the sand (13th in sand saves). So, one might assume we won’t see many mistakes from Todd on Thursday.
If there’s one area I wish Todd performed stronger, it’s opportunities gained. He’s 54th in the field over those same 24 rounds and isn’t converting many of those chances (79th in birdies or better gained).
However, there are other positive trends to balance that out. He finished two shots off the opening round pace a few weeks ago at the Charles Schwab Challenge and was only three shots off the lead for the Valero Texas Open opening round. Further, Todd posted a strong four-under 68 in his opening round at Pebble Beach, a correlated course to St. George’s Golf & Country Club.
If this University of Georgia product can continue to produce strong approach numbers, I believe he’s worth a bet at a great price based on the statistical modeling.
0 Commentaires