We’ve reached the quarter-point in the MLB season, when every team (except the Guardians) has played at least 40 games of its 162-game schedule. The sample is now more than big enough to draw meaningful conclusions about all 30 baseball teams using their underlying numbers.
Here are observations on all five American League East teams:
Yankees
The Yankees have won 70.7 percent of their games at this point in the season, which is equal to a 115-win pace. That record would be one game better than the franchise record set by the 114-win Yanks in 1998. No preseason projection system had them higher than 97 wins and there’s some cracks showing in the bullpen with Chad Green’s injury and Aroldis Chapman’s drop off in stuff and overall effectiveness.
As impressive as the depth of the pitching has been, the lineup is first in baseball in the following categories: barrel rate, hard-hit rate, xwOBA and xBA. They won’t play at a 115-win pace all year, and given the injury histories of the rotation, I’d expect some pitching regression or potential injuries to test the depth of the Yankees staff in the coming weeks.
Baseball is always a game-by-game type of sport when betting, but people are going to lose money trying to bet on the Yankees now if you’re just getting on the bandwagon now. The market has been recently overvaluing them.
Rays
The Rays are going to be one of the better buy-lows in the entire market this season, and we’re almost at that point. Injuries to Shane Baz and Luis Patino have tested the depth of the Rays staff, and as usual, Tampa Bay found more excellent arms to fill the void.
Patino and Baz will be back at some point this summer but the development of Shane McClanahan as a legitimate ace and Drew Rasmussen as an elite five-and-dive guy raises the potential of Tampa Bay this season.
McClanahan is throwing his slider less and using his changeup and curveball more. He has cut his walk rate and increased his strikeout rate almost 10 percent. McClanahan is now an ace with a 2.44 xERA and a real shot at AL Cy Young. Look to buy low on Tampa Bay soon.
Blue Jays
The Jays’ batters are chasing way too many pitches outside of the strike zone and until that changes, it’s hard to see this offense turn it around fully.
The loss of Marcus Semien and Randal Grichuk were perhaps more than we thought before the season. The pitching is as good as advertised, while Teoscar Hernandez and Bo Bichette’s underlying numbers suggest a good run of hitting is coming for them. However, the lineup lacks depth, and Vlad Guerrero Jr. appears to have taken a small enough step back to limit the true explosiveness of the Jays.
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Toronto games are 26-13-2 to the under this season, the third biggest under team of the 2022 season.
Red Sox
Boston, and mostly Trevor Story, has finally shown some signs of life offensively. The Red Sox swept the Mariners in a four-game series and Story is now an above-average hitter with a 112 OPS+.
When you compare xwOBA and wOBA, only six teams have been less fortunate with the quality of their contact than the Red Sox. Boston has chased less in the last couple of weeks — they’re down to fourth in chase rate on pitches outside the zone. But the Red Sox are still around 10th worst in swing rate, chase rate and swinging-strike rate in May.
All of that will limit them from being the elite unit they need to be to overcome the lack of pitching depth.
Orioles
The left-field fence in Baltimore was pushed back this season and it has had a devastating impact on the Orioles’ right-handed bats. Baltimore’s righties have a 90 wRC+ and a .101 ISO this season at home, along with a .240/.313/.341 slash line.
Last season, Baltimore righties had a 98 wRC+ at home and a .181 ISO. The SLG was almost 100 points higher, too. One of my favorite spots to back the Orioles last year was at home, against lefties, as a big underdog. However, the impact of the different home parks has cut down a lot of the power from an already bad lineup.
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