Let’s take the co-main event out for a second, UFC 274 was awesome. Everyone wants to complain about the women’s strawweight title fight and that’s just simply unfair. There have been plenty of terrible fights in the past that were supposed to be great (Ngannou-Lewis, Romero-Adesanya).
Last week we went 1-1-1 with the one win actually being the parlay. Overall, the read on the main event, which can be read here, was close to spot-on but Gaethje broke hearts to win in under 2.5 rounds at +320 (betting lined closed at +230).
On the night, we profited for the third consecutive week and fourth in six tries. Total backers of my weekly picks, including the parlay are up 17.4 units of profit for the six UFC cards. Let’s keep the hot UFC picks rollin’ for UFC Fight Night tonight!
All odds were accurate at the time of writing…
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UFC Fight Night picks and predictions
Blachowicz (+165) vs. Rakic (-195)
Former Heavyweight champion, Jan Blachowicz returns to the octagon on Saturday against Alexsandar Rakic. This is a tough one to call as Rakic is undoubtedly the more skilled striker but, at times, lacks the killer instinct to get a fighter out of there.
Rakic’s last two fights aren’t exactly making me run to my sports betting app to bet on him.
However, his takedown defense is strong enough that Blachowicz is unlikely to show off an edge grappling. Overall, this fight could become a semi-chess match between the two strikers where Rakic carefully maneuvers his way around the cage. There is some value on Blachowicz to win by decision at +460 but without any grappling edge think he gets out-pointed while standing.
Rakic probably wins this fight by a decision which is +235 on PointsBet Sportsbook. If you are leary of his inactivity being a detriment to his game, you could opt to take ‘fight goes the distance’ at +115, which is where I’m at on this one.
UFC Fight Night picks tonight: Fight goes to decision +115 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Andre Petroski (+310) vs. Nick Maxmiov (-435)
Lowkey one of my favorites on the card is Andre Petroski vs. Nick Maximov. Two extremely skilled chain wrestlers facing off. Maximov is from the Nick Diaz Academy and appears to be the next big thing coming from that fight camp.
Petroski trains with Sean Brady and Paul Felder in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and is a very skilled 7-1 fighter.
Both fighters have pretty shot gas tanks so a late finish is very live. Maximov looked dominant as a slight underdog in his last fight against Punahele Soriano, a powerful striker.
However, Soriano never got going with the striking because he feared Maximov’s grappling. It’s the same reason that Khabib was never knocked out in his career, the grappling is so dominant that striking isn’t as much of a weakness.
The interesting thing about this fight to me is that Petroski is an extremely competitive grappler. He even beat JuCo National Champion wrestler, Phil Hawes, in a straight-up grappling match at Fury Pro Grappling 3 on New Year’s Eve.
At the time of writing, Petroski is a +300 underdog which is nonsense. Maximov was an underdog against Soriano and was a great bet there. In this fight, the overcorrection is too large. Petroski is very live for a KO or TKO, he shouldn’t be as terrified of Maximov’s chain wrestling as his previous opponents were.
UFC Fight Night picks tonight: Andre Petroski ML +310 | by KO/TKO +1600 (DraftKings)
UFC Fight Night parlay (+787): Ribas (+144) + Rakic/Blachowicz fight starts round 3 (-210) + Hill/Jandiroba GTD (-220) + Michael Johnson ML (-144)
Hitting the parlay last week was a nice consolation prize after Justin Gaethje ripped everyone’s hearts out with two first-round knockdowns and then got submitted moments later. In five tries, the parlay is 2-3, for +8 units of profit. A few notes…
This bet was placed on FanDuel Sportsbook who is again offering all of its users UFC parlay insurance for bets up $25, opt-in at the promos page.
- Chookagian as a -200 favorite? Pass. Ribas is a solid striker and a way better grappler. Ribas all-day long as an underdog, she’s a legit prospect.
- Jandiroba probably wins this by decision thanks to her grappling. Could opt to have Jandiroba by decision (+150) as the leg here too. However, Hill’s durability scares me. Taking the safer play for the parlay.
- Michael Johnson is the unluckiest fighter on the roster. He faces off against Alan Patrick who he should have a significant edge on in striking and defend his takedowns.
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