On the heels of its FA Cup final victory, Liverpool travels to Southampton looking to keep alive its quadruple hopes.
Following Manchester City’s draw with West Ham United Sunday, a Liverpool win would move it only a point behind City heading into Championship Sunday. As for Southampton, it has secured its spot in the top-flight next season and has little to play for Tuesday.
The reverse fixture between these sides at Anfield saw a dominant performance from Liverpool. It won the match 4-0 and outpaced Southampton 3.15-1.01 on expected goals.
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Southampton Looking to Spoil Liverpool’s Title Chase
It has proved a rough few months for the Saints, which found itself in ninth all the way back on Matchday 27.
However, this club has been in disarray since March 5th. Over that timeframe, the Saints are 1-7-2 (W-L-D) and has won only two of those 10 fixtures on expected goals. A large portion of those problems can be attributed to its defense, which has proved utterly shambolic.
In those 10 fixtures, Southampton’s defense has kept only one opponent under one expected goal and has allowed five of its last six opponents to create at least 1.5 expected goals. All told, it’s allowing 1.86 expected goals per 90 minutes in those matches, up from a season-long average of 1.52 xG/90, per fbref.com.
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Its attack has proved wildly inconsistent as well. It has created at least 1.1 expected goals in five of its last 10 fixtures, but only managed 0.5 xG in its last fixture against Big Six opposition. Plus, three of the four occasions on which it generated an expected goal came against Leeds United, Burnley, and Watford, all bottom-five teams.
If there’s good news for Southampton, its that it could see some positive regression as the season nears its end. To date, manager Ralph Hassenhutl’s side owns a -20 goal differential in the league against a -9.1 expected goal differential.
Dominant Liverpool Looking to Keep Title Hopes Alive
The Reds claimed its second trophy of the 2021-22 campaign Saturday and now look to give itself a chance at a third Sunday.
It will have to do so without attacker Mohamed Salah and defender Virgil van Dijk, both of whom have been ruled out of Tuesday’s fixture by manager Jurgen Klopp. Even with those absences in mind, it’s worth noting that Liverpool has dominated this calendar year.
It hasn’t lost in the Premier League since December 28th against Leicester City and has won all three points in 14 of 17 EPL fixtures since January 2nd. It has also managed at least 1.5 expected goals in all but three of those 17 fixtures and has notched two or more expected goals in nine of 17 fixtures.
Further, in those 14 victories, it has won 10 by multiple goals, including six of nine against the bottom-half.
If there’s an area of concern, it’s that two straight opponents have notched at least one expected goal against Liverpool, which has played 13 matches in the last 44 days. Additionally, with van Dijk on the pitch, Liverpool have a +1.37 xGDiff per 90 minutes.
Southampton-Liverpool Best Bet
I lean to Liverpool as a side, especially considering the stakes after City dropped points.
However, for as bad as Southampton has played, I’m not included to lay a goal-and-a-half with Liverpool sans Salah and van Dijk. However, where I am seeing value is in the first half.
Against bottom-half opposition this season, Liverpool has won the opening frame in 14 of 19 fixtures. Believe it or not, it’s actually better in that regard away from home where it has won seven of nine first halves.
Given Southampton has struggled to create much in the first half against the top opposition — it has generated only 0.24 xG/90 minutes in the first half through five matches against the current top three — I believe it may only take one for Liverpool to claim the first half.
Additionally, Southampton has lost the first half in three of its last four overall and in three of the five aforementioned matches against the top three. As a result, I would play Liverpool up to -135 in the first half.
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