Only 13 matches remain in the 2021-22 English Premier League campaign, with three rescheduled fixtures taking place today.
None concern the top of the table, but both Aston Villa-Burnley and Everton-Crystal Palace will have an impact on the relegation fight. As it stands, Burnley finds itself in the final relegation spot a point behind Leeds United and two points out from Everton.
With that established, let’s turn to my best bets for today’s trio of fixtures.
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Best Bet #1 – Aston Villa/Burnley Under 2.5 Goals (-120)
Odds via BetMGM
The reverse fixture at Turf Moor saw Villa claim all three points in a 3-1 victory, but I’m expecting a low-event match at Villa Park.
Although Burnley needs to somewhat go for it, I don’t expect it to lose its shape defensively as it attempts to stay within striking distance. Plus, Villa’s attack has been running pretty hot of late — five goals on 3.9 expected in its last three fixtures — and only generated 1.58 expected goals in the reverse meeting, per fotmob.com.
Additionally, Burnley’s defense has proven somewhat reliable in matches against bottom-half opposition. Through 16 fixtures against the current bottom half, the Clarets are allowing only 1.35 expected goals per minute and have held nine of those sides to 1.3 expected goals or fewer.
At the same time, though, Burnley’s attack has left a lot to be desired in those same 16 fixtures. It has generated only 1.22 expected goals per 90 minutes and has scored one or fewer goals in all but six fixtures.
Plus, Villa’s defense has conceded only 0.91 expected goals per 90 minutes through 17 fixtures against bottom-half sides and has conceded more than once on only three occasions.
Although a 3-0 Villa blowout is a legitimate concern, I’d back this market up to -125.
Best Bet #2 – Chelsea/Leicester City Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals (+110)
Odds via BetMGM
Neither of these sides have anything meaningful to play for — Chelsea have locked up third place while Leicester only have a top-half finish left as motivation — but I’m expecting a wide-open game.
The reverse fixture at the King Power produced a 3-0 Chelsea victory, but the teams combined for six big scoring chances. Additionally, Chelsea’s defense finds itself in shambles at the moment. In its last two fixtures played entirely 11v11, manager Thomas Tuchel’s side has conceded three goals on 3.4 expected, per fbref.com.
Shockingly, those two matches came against Everton and Wolves, two sides that rank amongst the six-worst xG/90 sides. Leicester, meanwhile, ranks seventh in the league in that same measure and has now gotten on the scoreboard in nine of its last 10 fixtures.
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At the same time, though, Leicester’s defense is questionable at best. It only has one deserved clean sheet in its last 11 fixtures and has kept only seven clean sheets on the season, five of which were undeserved based on expected goals.
Additionally, through 11 fixtures against Big Six opposition, the Foxes have conceded 2.26 expected goals per 90 minutes and have held only three sides to one or fewer goals (all undeservedly).
For those reasons, play this single-game parlay up to +100.
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