NHL playoffs series prediction, odds

The two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning will start off the postseason as a slight underdog towards the Toronto Maple Leafs. And inspite of the sounds bordering this matchup — the Lightning’s prowess in the playoffs and Toronto’s inability to win a collection, no matter the opponent — it is difficult to argue that the Buds aren’t deserving favorites in this matchup.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs NHL playoffs sequence odds

Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook

Lightning +110 vs. Maple Leafs -130

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs sequence prediction

No make a difference how you shake it, the Maple Leafs ended up a greater team than the Lightning this season. Not only did Toronto finish 5 details and 8 plans forward of the Bolts in the standings, but the Buds also completed inside of the best-5 in conditions of objectives per sport, envisioned ambitions level, superior-hazard scoring possibility proportion, and electrical power-enjoy percentage. There are ups and downs for every group throughout an 82-video game time, but the Leafs had been 1 of the circuit’s most reliable clubs in 2021-22. 

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There are a large amount of motives to believe in this Leafs main in opposition to the Lightning. Toronto was the stronger 5-on-5 staff, they experienced the much better exclusive teams all through the season and Tampa Bay’s sort did wane at times through the extend operate.

But overlook the Lightning at your very own possibility. Tampa Bay has played a ton of hockey because the NHL returned from its Covid-hiatus almost 20 months back, so it’s not all that stunning that the Bolts did seem to rate by themselves, specially because they essentially had a playoff place wrapped up in December. 

So though the figures will display that Toronto has been the more powerful group, this is a collection exactly where you are going to require to rely on raw handicapping in addition to what the figures inform you. And a great deal of that handicapping boils down to this: How considerably inventory must we place into Tampa’s pedestrian extend at a issue of the year wherever they had been possible just waiting around for the playoffs to begin? 

Simply because from a matchup viewpoint, Tampa is a person of the couple of groups in the NHL that can experience self-assured in their capability to match up with Toronto. 

A large amount of Toronto’s results does hinge on how its higher-stop players conduct. Auston Matthews is the Hart Trophy favored and Mitchell Marner just posted a 97-level year in 72 game titles, but none of that will make any difference if Toronto’s dynamic duo goes quiet in a further playoff collection. And when it is not likely that the Lightning maintain Matthews and Marner off the scoresheet completely, they do have the horses essential to make daily life hard on Toronto’s very best gamers.

The Tampa Bay Lightning and the Toronto Maple Leafs battle in the third interval during a game at Amalie Arena on April 21, 2022 
Getty Illustrations or photos

Even though Matthews, Marner, John Tavares, William Nylander and Michael Bunting (who is questionable for Match 1 and outside of) give Toronto an shame of riches up front, people 5 gamers will see a ton of Anthony Cirelli, Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak about the system of this sequence. Outdoors of the goaltending, Cirelli could stop up being the most vital issue in this series, as he has the capability to sluggish down Toronto’s vaunted leading line. 

Incredibly number of teams would fairly stand a prospect to preserve Matthews, Marner and Co. in examine, but Tampa Bay has a terrific shutdown center, a handful of defensive stalwarts and the greatest goalie in the world. These are the components you need to have to contend in opposition to the Leafs.

But Toronto’s protection should also offer a stern examination for Tampa Bay’s elite players at the top of the lineup. The Leafs finished inside of the top rated-10 in expected objectives versus and higher-risk scoring chances conceded, so they shouldn’t be overrun by this dynamic attack. Toronto now has 3 pairs that can engage in a unique function, with Morgan Rielly enjoying in an less difficult function as the puck-mover, whilst TJ Brodie, Timothy Liljegren, Mark Giordano and Jake Muzzin will be assigned the rough minutes.

TAMPA, FL - JULY 7: Steven Stamkos #91 of the Tampa Bay Lightning hoists the Stanley Cup overhead after the Tampa Bay Lightning defeated the Montreal Canadiens in Game Five to win the best of seven game series 4-1 during the Stanley Cup Final of the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Amalie Arena on July 7, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Scott Iskowitz /NHLI via Getty Images)
TAMPA, FL – JULY 7: Steven Stamkos #91 of the Tampa Bay Lightning hoists the Stanley Cup overhead following the Tampa Bay Lightning defeated the Montreal Canadiens in the Stanley Cup Final
NHLI by using Getty Photos

As with any greatest-of-7 series, the difference for this series will possible be the play of the goaltenders. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been the ideal goaltender in the environment for the previous 3 many years and even in a yr in which he did not get considerably attention however posted a .917 help save proportion and a +17.6 GSAx. Vasilevskiy is clearly the A-aspect in this showdown, but just how a lot of an edge the Bolts have in target is heading to be the huge issue for this collection.

Jack Campbell is the only NHL-degree goaltender the Leafs have on their roster and he’s been Jekyll-and-Hyde this season. Immediately after a terrific start out to the time, Campbell’s form plummeted all over the wintertime till he ended up on hurt reserve. Campbell has looked additional secure considering the fact that returning from harm, but he’ll will need to supply above-typical goaltending in a matchup this restricted. Whether he can do that is a enormous query mark.

In a sequence exactly where the margin for mistake is very thin, the Lightning’s edge in intention is possible the difference-maker. In a coin-flip matchup, the plus-revenue odds on Tampa offer price.

NHL playoffs collection wager: Tampa Bay Lightning Collection Moneyline +100 (BetMGM)

NHL playoffs series prediction, odds

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