This Rangers-Penguins first-round series has seemingly been on the horizon for months. After the two teams traded places in the Metropolitan Division standings for weeks and then squared off three times in the span of 14 days throughout the final two months of the regular season, the playoff stage is officially set.
While the Rangers are embarking on their first legitimate postseason since 2017 (the NHL counts the 2020 bubble playoffs even though they shouldn’t), the Penguins — a team that is five years removed from winning back-to-back Stanley Cups — is looking to make it out of Round 1 for the first time since the 2017-18 campaign that followed their championship run.
The Rangers are looking to validate a dominant regular-season performance. Players like Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider have been champing at the bit to get back to the playoffs after four straight seasons of falling short. Anything but a sweep should be viewed as an accomplishment, especially after the Rangers were swept in three games by the Hurricanes in the qualifying round of the 2020 bubble playoffs.
The Penguins’ core trio of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang could be looking for one last hurrah before possibly getting split up for the first time in their NHL careers. Malkin and Letang are not under contract for next season, and Pittsburgh general manager Ron Hextall has to decide between staying competitive or beginning a rebuild.
The Post’s Mollie Walker takes a look at how the teams match up.
Goaltending
There is only one other NHL team that could maybe compete with the Rangers in this category, and that is the Lightning and their goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. Since the Penguins’ No. 1 goalie Tristan Jarry reportedly broke his foot and is considered week-to-week, the Rangers and Vezina-Trophy front-runner Igor Shesterkin have an immense advantage in net.
Shesterkin came into his own in his first 82-game season, compiling a staggering .935 save percentage that is the third highest in NHL history among goaltenders with a minimum of 50 appearances. He is the kind of goalie — much like his predecessor Henrik Lundqvist — that can throw his team over his back and carry it to the finish line.
Without Jarry, who was one of the top netminders in the league this season after a catastrophic implosion against the Islanders in the 2020-21 playoffs, the Penguins have Casey DeSmith and Louis Domingue.
Edge: Rangers
Defense
The Rangers and Penguins are two relatively sound defensive teams. They both finished within the top five for the lowest goals-against averages in the NHL, with the Rangers (2.49) holding a slight edge over the Penguins (2.71). That also translates into their total goals against numbers this season. The Rangers gave up the second-lowest in the league at 204, while the Penguins allowed 222.
In looking at both defense cores, however, the Rangers are a bit more complete. The Penguins’ top pair of Letang and Brian Dumoulin is strong, but the Blueshirts’ top four of Adam Fox, Ryan Lindgren, Jacob Trouba and K’Andre Miller is simply more well-rounded.
Edge: Rangers
Forwards
Pittsburgh has a well-balanced lineup with four lines that are incredibly deep down the middle, beginning with Crosby and Malkin at the top and then Jeff Carter and Teddy Blueger in the bottom six. Jake Guentzel is in the midst of a career season, with 40 goals and 44 assists, and the left winger is just further establishing himself as a top goal-scorer.
Bryan Rust completes the Penguins’ top line with Guentzel and Crosby, while former Ranger Brian Boyle and his 45.2 faceoff win percentage flanks the fourth unit. Evan Rodrigues is also an effective fourth-line contributor.
The Rangers have had a front-loaded lineup for quite some time. Their top two units shoulder a bulk of the offense. Zibanejad, Kreider and trade-deadline acquisition Frank Vatrano make for a dynamic scoring line, in addition to Artemi Panarin, Ryan Strome and Andrew Copp, another trade-deadline acquisition.
The scoring drop-off from the top two lines to the bottom two is why Pittsburgh has the edge here. But if the kids — Alexis Lafreniere, Filip Chytil and Kaapo Kakko — can make their presence felt on the scoreboard, the Rangers will be in good shape.
Edge: Penguins
Special Teams
This will be a fun category to watch play out, just because the Rangers have one of the better power plays (25.2 percent) and the Penguins have one of the better penalty kills (84.4). But the Rangers aren’t too far behind Pittsburgh on the PK (82.3), which makes them more of a threat in the grand scheme of the special teams game. In fact, the Rangers’ eight shorthanded goals this season is tied for the sixth most in the NHL.
Edge: Rangers
Coaching
Penguins coach Mike Sullivan is in his seventh season with this group and has been in an interesting position the last couple years as the organization approaches a fork in the road. He is certainly familiar with his players, but another first-round exit wouldn’t help Sullivan’s case to remain the bench boss, especially if a rebuild is steadily approaching.
While Gerard Gallant has only coached past the first round once, back in 2017-18 when the Golden Knights went to the Cup Final in their inaugural season, the Rangers head coach’s coaching style has helped transform the Blueshirts.
The Rangers have thrived under Gallant and his old-school approach. It should be easy to translate into the postseason.
Edge: Rangers
Prediction
Unless they are star struck in their first playoff appearance in five years, the Rangers should be able to prevail.
Rangers in six
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