Well, well, that first game of the series went off almost exactly as predicted. If you read my Game 1 prediction of this series, you would’ve seen that I had the Mavericks covering (missed that by a point, ugh), and most importantly, Luka Doncic 40+ points at +630. There were a few more winners in there, too.
With plenty of data points to show that line truly was, FanDuel has corrected it down to +340. Unfortunately, my auto-bet theory is done after one game as +340 is not a price that I am willing to play.
Instead, I have a few new player prop bets for Game 2 between the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks.
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Mavericks vs. Suns Game 2 odds
Odds provided by PointsBet
Spread: DAL +6.5 (-110) vs. PHO -6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: DAL (+220) vs. PHO (-276)
Total: Over 216.5 (-110) | Under 216.5 (-110)
Mavericks vs. Suns prediction
The Mavericks were thoroughly outplayed from start to finish in Game 1. This is despite a massive 45-point effort from star Luka Doncic. The Suns are a much better team here and should win this series in around six games.
However, the sticking point that I couldn’t help but think about was how lopsided the three-point shot is. The Mavericks made 16 3’s on Monday and shot an impressive 41 percent from beyond the arc. Without massive three-point shot contributions, the Mavericks would’ve been blown out. It would stand to reason that the Mavericks simply won’t just win because of a hot shooting night but also need to get stops and rebound.
Their center, Maxi Kleber grabbed just one rebound as they got killed on the offensive glass (13 offensive rebounds allowed). All of this is to say, Game 1 did not give me much confidence that the Mavericks can steal this series.
I’ll take the Suns to win the first half at home. As stated in the past, the Mavericks are very dangerous and are live to get hot at any moment. However, the Suns are so efficient it is almost painful to watch. This team just makes very few mistakes and is a tough matchup again for the Mavericks in the playoffs.
Mavericks vs. Suns Game 2 Prediction: Suns -3 first-half -110 (DraftKings)
Mavericks vs. Suns player prop bets
Luka Doncic ‘over’ 8.5 assists +105 (BetMGM)
Doncic’s usage is going to be through the roof this entire series. He won’t be like 2018 LeBron where he nearly averaged a triple-double in the playoffs, but he might get close. He had 14 in Game 1 and will need to keep his teammates heavily involved.
Spencer Dinwiddie three-point ladder (FanDuel)
- 2+ threes +104
- 3+ threes +360
- 4+ threes +1160
Tried this on Bullock in Game 1 and he still is an option here. However, Dinwiddie was 2-for-4 from beyond the arc on Monday and just needs to be more confident in his shot. Frankly, he needs to be their second-best player if the Mavericks have a chance.
Devin Booker double-double +1100 (Caesars Sportsbook)
At the time of writing, Caesars is the only sportsbook willing to take bets on this. Which is kind of nonsense considering Booker had nine rebounds and eight assists in Game 1. This is worth a bet down to +1000 in the event that more sportsbooks do start taking these bets as it gets closer to game time.
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