The final day of the Premier League campaign has arrived and the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Manchester City can win the title simply by winning against Aston Villa, but Liverpool arrives at its fixture against Wolves only a point behind the Cityzens. At the other end of the table, Leeds need to better Burnley’s result to survive while the Clarets can guarantee safety with a win or by matching Leeds’ result.
The final Champions League spot is also technically in play, but Tottenham would need to lose to last-place Norwich while Arsenal would need to win against Everton to snatch the final UCL place.
All that said, here is where I’m looking for my pair of best bets. All odds are subject to change and are reflective at time of writing. Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
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English Premier League predictions today
Crystal Palace Draw, No Bet (+115) vs. Manchester United (11:00 a.m. ET)
United has absolutely nothing left to play for and has to go on the road to Crystal Palace, which has played marvelously at home this campaign.
Only the top-five clubs in the table can claim a better expected goal differential at home than Palace, which also could see some positive regression based on its home performances (+9 goal differential on +10.7 xGDiff), per fbref.com.
Additionally, Palace has not laid eggs at home against the league’s best clubs. Through six fixtures against the Big Six and West Ham, Palace has posted a +1.8 expected goal differential and has generated at least 1.5 expected goals in four of those six fixtures. Its attack could also see positive regression based on those six performances as Palace has scored nine goals on 10 expected.
Plus, United’s defense has not traveled well this season. With only one road fixture left to play, the Red Devils have conceded the fourth-most road expected goals this season — ahead of only Southampton, Leeds United and Norwich City — and sit 10th in the road xGDiff table.
United has also struggled greatly in matches against top-half home xGDiff sides. It has lost four straight fixtures against such opposition (all deserved based on expected goals) and is 3-4-1 (W-L-D) in those eight fixtures with a -8.1 expected goal differential. Its goal differential in reality is -7, so negative regression could be on the way.
For those reasons, play Palace at +105 or better on the draw, no bet line or at -145 or better at +0.5.
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Burnley vs. Newcastle United (11:00 a.m. ET) Under 2.5 Goals (-120)
In a sense, Burnley need to go for it here, but I don’t expect it to lose its defensive shape all of sudden.
Plus, Burnley has actually produced decent defensive results at home. Through 18 fixtures at Turf Moor, Burnley has allowed only 1.33 expected goals per 90 minutes and has kept two of its last three visitors under 1.1 expected goals. Additionally, through eight home fixtures against bottom-half opposition this season, Burnley has kept five to 1.5 or fewer expected goals.
At the same time, Newcastle’s defense has discovered some great form as the season nears its end. Across its last five fixtures against teams not named Manchester City or Liverpool, the Magpies have conceded only 2.8 total expected goals with all five opponents staying under 0.7 xG, per fbref.com, and three of five staying under 2.5 goals.
Dating back to January 15th, Newcastle has allowed only 0.69 xG/90 minutes in 12 fixtures against bottom-half opposition with eight of those 12 matches staying under this benchmark.
However, this Newcastle offense has ran slightly hot of late — nine goal on 8.5 expected — and could see some negative regression. It also generated only 1.3 xG in the reverse fixture against Burnley, so don’t count on a blowout.
As a result, I’ll play this market up to -130.
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