“Some guys have all the luck;
Some guys have all the pain;
Some guys get all the breaks;
Some guys do nothing but complain.”
— Rod Stewart, “Some Guys Have All the Luck”
Some fantasy owners believe they are always unlucky with their bad luck. Those are the owners who get down on players struggling early in the season, like Cincinnati’s Tyler Mahle (who’s run into a ton of bad luck himself), and drop them when there’s still 140 or so games to be played.
Don’t be that guy. Luck can always turn.
Mahle had a breakout season in 2021, going 13-6 with a 3.75 ERA, 210 strikeouts, a .234 opponent average and 1.23 WHIP in 33 starts (a career high). Though he finished with the fifth-worst walk rate (8.4 percent) and 12th-worst WHIP, he ranked 10th in strikeouts per nine (10.5), 24th in ERA and swinging strike rate (11.4 percent), and 22nd in opponent average.
That performance was good enough for fantasy owners to consider him a top 40 starting pitcher this year with a 126.22 average draft position, according to Fantasy Alarm. It didn’t hurt that he also entered the season as Cincinnati’s de facto ace with Sonny Gray shipped to Minnesota and Luis Castillo starting the season on the injured list with shoulder issues.
Unfortunately, things haven’t exactly gone according to plan.
Through his first six starts, Mahle is 1-4 with a 7.01 ERA, 1.71 WHIP and .283 opponent average. He entered the weekend with the second-worst ERA, WHIP and strand rate (51.4 percent), fifth-worst opponent average and the third-worst walk rate (11.7 percent).
There is no denying how ugly these numbers are, and fantasy owners have quickly started to lose faith. Mahle was the seventh-most dropped player in ESPN leagues with his ownership percentage dropping to 77.1 percentage. His ownership level was even lower at Yahoo on Friday (73 percent).
Playing on a Reds team off to a historically bad start (only the 2003 Tigers and 1988 Orioles have been this bad, or worse, through 25 games) doesn’t help, nor does walking 4.91 batters per nine innings. But there are numbers that tell the story of a pitcher who’s had a ton of bad luck.
According to Statcast, Mahle has a 3.69 expected ERA, which shows the ERA he deserves based on the type of contact hitters are making. He is not giving up a ton of hard contact. After allowing 24 homers last season (13th-most in the majors), he didn’t allow one until his last start.
Mahle’s FIP (3.21), xFIP (4.53) and expected batting average (.255) are also indications he has gotten unlucky, as does the bloated .367 BaBIP, which means hitters are putting the ball in play more often than they should. This number, too, should normalize as the season rolls on (his career average is .306).
Mahle, who will start Sunday against the Pirates, still has the ability to make hitters swing and miss, as his 10.7 percent swinging strike rate was tied with Phillies ace Zack Wheeler and Cubs veteran Kyle Hendricks. His 9.1 strikeouts per nine was the 18th-best mark in the majors, one spot behind Joe Musgrove. If he get his 11 percent walk rate in check, there is no reason to believe he can’t turn his season around.
If Mahle is still on your roster, make sure he stays there. If he’s on the waiver wire, pick him up — even if he sits on your bench for a while. It may not get much better for the Reds, but things should get much better for Mahle.
Big Hits
Rowdy Tellez, 1B, Brewers
Scored at least one run in six of his past nine games while going 12-for-32 (.375) with four homers, 14 RBIs and a 1.335 OPS.
Michael Wacha, SP, Red Sox
Allowed four earned runs over his first 26 innings (1.38 ERA) while going 3-0 with 19 strikeouts and a .148 opponent average. Walked 11, but is also 3-0 with a 1.62 ERA and .170 opponent average in his past three starts.
Jazz Chisholm Jr., 2B/SS, Marlins
Entered Friday on an eight-game hit streak, going 11-for-30 (.367) with four RBIs and a .924OPS in that span. Has hit .340 with six stolen bases over his past 13 games.
Justin Verlander, SP, Astros
Over his past four starts, the veteran is 3-0 with a 1.95 ERA, 24:1 strikeout-walk rate and .168 opponent average.
Big Whiffs
Patrick Corbin, SP, Nationals
Allowed 22 earned runs and 4.2 walks per nine over his first six starts, going 0-5 with a 7.16 ERA and a rather healthy .308 opponent average.
J.T. Realmuto, C, Phillies
His average dropped from .333 on April 19 to .258 after going 9-for-47 (.192) with 12 strikeouts and a .594 OPS over his past 13 games.
Elieser Hernandez, SP, Marlins
Allowed four homers and 13 runs on 17 hits over his past three starts while going 1-0 with a 8.56 ERA and .304 opponent average.
Avisail Garcia, OF, Marlins
Last homer came on April 16, going 9-for-58 (.155) with 22 strikeouts and one walk in 16 games since. Entered Friday with a 2.3 percent walk rate, the third-lowest mark in the majors.
CHECK SWINGS
— Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez entered Friday with the third-highest strikeout rate in the majors (36.4 percent) and a .220 average, but had hit .298 with a homer, seven RBIs, five stolen bases and a .778 OPS over his previous 13 games. He also was leading the league in stolen bases.
— Jose Ramirez’s average dipped from .426 on April 21 to .315 after going 9-for-45 (.200) with three homers, nine RBIs, seven strikeouts and a .802 OPS in 13 games for the Guardians from April 22 through Thursday.
— Jeimer Candelario, Roto Rage’s most underrated third baseman, entered Friday on a five-game hit streak, hitting .444 with two homers, three RBIs, six runs and a 1.363 OPS in that span for the Tigers. That was after hitting .136 with 17 strikeouts, no homers and a .390 OPS in his first 18 games.
TEAM NAME OF THE WEEK
Seiya Real Soon
Submitted by David Easton
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