We’re less than 24 hours out from the AT&T Byron Nelson, which gives us one last chance to share some picks.
Having already covered my favorite derivative selections for the event, this column will focus on my top matchup plays. In one case, I’ve identified a favorite that, in my opinion, should be a bigger favorite while the other matchup presents a false favorite.
So without further hesitation, here are my best matchup bets for the AT&T Byron Nelson. All odds are subject to change and are reflective at the time of writing.
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Best Bet #1 – Joaquin Niemann (-125) over Talor Gooch
Odds via BetMGM
This is one of the biggest modeling discrepancies I have, so I’m happy to lay this price with Niemann.
Across the last 36 qualifying rounds, Niemann ranks 14th in my model and is no worse than 17th in the three-most important categories. On the flip side, Gooch sits 139th in my 36-round model and ranks outside the top-100 in four of six statistical categories (although he is a respectable ninth in bogey avoidance).
Even just over the last 24 rounds, Niemann ranks out 24th while Gooch is still 63rd overall. In that model, Niemann is 26th and 9th, respectively in SG: Approach and SG: T2G, while Gooch is 50th and 72nd, respectively, in the two most important statistical categories.
Plus, just over his last 24 rounds, Niemann ranks second in the field in SG: T2G and third overall in birdies gained. As for Gooch, he’s 32nd and 44th, respectively, in those categories.
Add in that Bentgrass is Niemann’s best-putting surface — he’s gaining about 0.11 strokes/round putting on Bent — and I believe he’ll finish ahead of Gooch this weekend.
Best Bet #2 – Tommy Fleetwood (+105) over Jordan Spieth
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
It’s definitely scary going against a player that finished top-10 here last year, but Fleetwood has proven incredibly reliable of late.
Across his last five starts on tour, the Englishman has gone 20-22-16-14-10. As for Spieth, he’s been a boom-or-bust candidate of late. Across his last five starts, he has gone 26-MC-35-MC-1.
Plus, my model actually likes Fleetwood better this week. He’s 23rd in my 24-round model and 38th in the field across his last 36 qualifying rounds. Spieth, meanwhile, is 36th and 56th, respectively, in those two models.
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Further, just over the last 24 rounds in general, Fleetwood is 15th in the field in birdies or better gained while Spieth ranks out 63rd in the same category. And although the approach play is a definite concern with Fleetwood — he’s 80th in SG: approach over his last 24 qualifying rounds — he’s gained strokes in three straight events there, so perhaps he’s turning a corner.
For all those reasons, I’d have these players rated closer to a pick ’em, so I’m happy to take a shot with Fleetwood at plus-money.
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