We’re only hours away from the Super Bowl of global soccer.
Liverpool, the 2019 Champions League winners, will battle 13-time European Cup winners Real Madrid in the 2022 UEFA Champions League final at the Stade de France in Paris. The former arrives as a consensus favorite for the match with most books hovering between +100 and +110 for the first 90 minutes.
In terms of the “to lift the trophy” odds, Liverpool are -160 with Real Madrid +120 on the comeback.
With that said, here are my best bets for Saturday’s final.
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2022 UEFA Championship League Final prediction and picks
Best Bet #1 – Liverpool Moneyline (+105)
Odds via BetMGM
There are two outcomes for this match – either Liverpool cruise or Madrid prove a team of destiny.
Manager Carlo Ancelotti’s side has played with nine lives in this tournament and has continuously escaped from hopeless positions. That luck is represented wildly in its underlying metrics. In eight UCL fixtures – two group matches against Inter and six knockout round matches – has a +6 goal differential (extra time included). However, it’s expected goal differential in those eight matches is -3.1, per fbref.com.
Just in its last six UCL fixtures, the luck has continued to show for Real Madrid. Even if you take out the extra time sessions against Chelsea and Manchester City, Real has a +1 goal differential against a -1.5 expected goal difference. It has also faced at least a two-goal aggregate deficit in all three knockout rounds.
On the flip-side, Liverpool actually arrives at the final a candidate for positive regression. In its six knockout round matches, manager Jurgen Klopp’s side has posted a +6 goal differential against a +7.5 expected goal difference, again per fbref.com. Plus, despite dropping points in two of six knockout fixtures, Liverpool has won all six on expected goals.
Plus, for all the narratives suggesting Liverpool are playing tired, it’s certainly not showing offensively. Dating back to the second leg against Inter Milan, Liverpool has created 1.95 xG/90 minutes in 16 combined EPL + UCL fixtures. That will be an issue for a Real Madrid defense that has allowed north of 1.8 xG/90 minutes in its last 15 La Liga + UCL fixtures.
For all those reasons, I have Liverpool projected at -160 for the first 90 minutes and am happy to take a shot in plus-money. Although I doubt it’ll drop low enough, I’d also back Liverpool to lift the trophy at -150 or better.
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Mohamed Salah Anytime Goalscorer (+145)
Odds via Fanduel Sportsbook
Not only is this match a revenge spot for Liverpool, who lost the 2018 Champions League Final 3-1 to Real Madrid, but it’s also a mini revenge spot for Salah.
The Egypt international exited that final after taking a nasty challenge from then-Madrid defender Sergio Ramos, forcing him to the sidelines for the defeat. And as we know now, revenge is on Salah’s mind.
Like his team, Salah is also a positive regression candidate entering Saturday’s final. In just his last six Champions League appearances, he’s scored only once on 2.4 expected goals. Although that goal drought may concern some bettors, Salah did notch seven tallies in the group stage.
Plus, wingers have had their way against Real Madrid in the Champions League. In examining the four fixtures against PSG & Manchester City – two sides that play the same formation as Liverpool — attacking wingers accounted for four of seven Real concessions, five if you include a goal from Bernardo Silva, a wide midfielder.
Lastly, Real Madrid don’t possess much strength at the full-back position. Left-back Ferland Mendy and right-back Dani Carvajal combine to rank in the bottom-half globally in nine of 12 key defensive categories (Mendy ranks out in the bottom-32 percent in all six).
If Salah lines up against Mendy, expect utter domination. Even if he lines up against Carvajal, expect him to give the Spaniard problems the way Kylian Mbappe did in the round of 16.
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