Zurich Classic modeling strategy key to victory

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Stroke play takes a back seat at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans this week in the first and only team event on the 2022 PGA Tour calendar.

Australian duo Cameron Smith and Marc Leishman enter this week as defending champions and co-favorites for the 2022 edition alongside Patrick Cantlay/Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa/Viktor Hovland (all +800).

Rounding out the top-five on the odds board are the SEC duo of Sam Burns/Billy Horschel (+1000) and former winner Ryan Palmer who will tee it up alongside Masters champion Scottie Scheffler (+1100).

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But before we dive into our best bets for the event, we’ll begin as we do every week with a modeling strategy for the event. One noteworthy qualifier in terms of sorting: I’ll only be considering rounds on courses longer than 7400 yards.

Modeling Stat #1 – Strokes-Gained: Tee-to-Green (23 percent emphasis)

TPC Louisiana, the second consecutive Pete Dye design to feature on the PGA Tour calendar, is an absolute behemoth in terms of course length.

Measuring at 7,425 yards from the tips, the Dye setup consistently ranks among the longest courses on the PGA Tour schedule. The course length isn’t just limited to the Par 4’s and 5’s — three of the four Par 3’s measure at least 190 yards on the scorecard.

As a result, teams will need to be equally long and accurate off the tee — especially in the alternate shot format — to create scoring opportunities in an event that consistently sees the winning team reach -20 or better.

Here are the SG: T2G leaders in my 36-round model as well as their partners and betting odds for the week:

1. Kevin Chappell (Partner – James Hahn) (+15000)
2. Xander Schauffele (Partner – Patrick Cantlay) (+800)
3. Chris Kirk (Partner – Brendon Todd) (+3300)
4. Sergio Garcia (Partner – Tommy Fleetwood) (+1600)
5. Will Zalatoris (Partner – Davis Riley) (+3500)

Modeling Stat #2 – Birdies or Better Gained (23 percent emphasis)

As referenced earlier, this event is not a “grind it out” affair. Rather, it’s a birdie-fest that sees incredibly low scores from the winning teams.

Most of the scoring will be done in the four-ball format that takes place on Thursday and Saturday — Smith and Leishman combined to shoot -18 last year in the two four-ball rounds — but the fact remains teams that gain birdie opportunities on the field will experience greater success.

Plus, for as long as TPC Louisiana is, there are holes that consistently play under par. Per fantasynational.com, 11 holes have historically played under par for the week, including six that play at least 0.2 shots under par for the week.

Here are the 36-round leaders in Birdies or Better gained as well as their playing partners and betting odds:

1. Viktor Hovland (Partner – Collin Morikawa) (+800)
2. Emiliano Grillo (Partner – Rafa Cabrera Bello) (+12500)
3. Cameron Smith (Partner – Marc Leishman) (+800)
4. Justin Rose (Partner – Henrik Stenson) (+6600)
5. Scottie Scheffler (Partner – Ryan Palmer) (+1100)

Scottie Scheffler poses with the Masters trophy.

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Modeling Stat #3 – Strokes-Gained: Approach (19 percent emphasis)

While not on the level of Harbour Town golf links, the greens at TPC Louisana are still smaller than average on the PGA Tour.

The Dye redesign rendered the greens 5,000 square feet on average while the average green size on tour comes in at approximately 6,600 square feet. So, just like a lot of other Dye designs, teams will need to be hyper-accurate with their approaches into the greens in order to score well.

Especially considering teams will comparatively lengthy approaches as compared to other weeks on tour — the highest percentage of approach shots come from 200+ yards — I really want to emphasize this stat this week and sort the field by players who can outpace the opposition.

Here are the 36-round leaders in SG: approach as well as their partners and betting odds:

1. Henrik Stenson (Partner – Justin Rose) (+6600)
2. Robert Garrigus (Partner – Tommy Gainey) (+30000)
3. Emiliano Grillo (Partner – Rafa Cabrera Bello) (+12500)
4. Ryan Palmer (Partner – Scottie Scheffler) (+1100)
5. Kevin Chappell (Partner – James Hahn) (+15000)

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Modeling Stats #4 & #5- SG: Par 4’s (450-500 Yards) & SG: Par 4’s (350-400 Yards) (12 percent emphasis each)

Ten Par 4’s fill out the scorecard at TPC Louisiana, with four apiece coming in at these respective lengths.

The longer holes get slightly more importance (nine percent emphasis) in my model as three of those four holes rank among the four most difficult holes on the golf course. That said, the four short Par 4’s are almost equally important (seven percent emphasis) as they present good scoring opportunities (all four are among the 10 easiest holes).

In fact, last year’s winners Smith and Leishman played the four easier holes eight-under-par and were -21 for the week on just those four holes and the four par 5’s. As a result, I want players who can survive on the difficult holes while scoring well on the four easy Par 4’s.

Here are the respective leaders in each category over the last 36 rounds with partners and betting odds:

All odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.

Par 4’s (450-500 Yards)

1. Jim Knous (Partner – Martin Trainer) (+30000)
2. Xander Schauffele (Partner – Patrick Cantlay) (+800)
3. Scott Stallings (Partner – Brice Garnett) (+6600)
4. Chesson Hadley (Partner – Jonathan Byrd) (+25000)
5. Keith Mitchell (Partner – Brandt Snedeker) (+5000)

Par 4’s (350-400 Yards)

1. Collin Morikawa (Partner – Viktor Hovland) (+800)
2. Chad Ramey (Partner – Joshua Creel) (+20000)
3. Sam Burns (Partner – Billy Horschel) (+1000)
4. Vaughn Taylor (Partner – Jim Herman) (+12500)
5. Tyrrell Hatton (Partner – Danny Willett) (+3300)

Collin Morikawa walks to the second green during the third round of the Masters at Augusta National Golf Club on April 9, 2022 in Augusta, Georgia.

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Modeling Stat #6 – Bogey Avoidance (11 percent emphasis)

This stat really only applies to two of the four rounds at Zurich Classic – the two alternate-shot rounds on Friday and Sunday – but it still carries enough importance to make my model.

Two straight winners at this event were even-par or better in the two alternate-shot rounds, while three straight winners posted at least one alternate shot round in red figures. Given the discrepancies between teams’ four-ball and foursomes scores — Smith and Leishman were -18 vs. -2 in those respective rounds last year — I believe a large portion of that can be attributed to avoiding squares on the scorecard.

When combined with all the other statistical factors, this should help separate some teams from others in what appears to be the more difficult format. With that said, here are the leaders in bogey avoidance for my 36-round model with partners and betting odds:

1. Patrick Cantlay (Partner – Xander Schauffele) (+800)
2. Marc Leishman (Partner – Cameron Smith) (+800)
3. Talor Gooch (Partner – Max Homa) (+2500)
4. Tommy Fleetwood (Partner – Sergio Garcia) (+1600)
5. Brice Garnett (Partner – Scott Stallings) (+6600)

Zurich Classic modeling strategy key to victory