The NFL draft is here again.
Thursday night, teams and their fans will dream about what is possible with their new players. The reality is more players will not work out than will succeed. Despite the grades people give out the day after the draft, it truly takes a few years before you really know how a draft class fared. That is what we try to do here. This is our eighth annual examination of the previous five years of the draft (2017-21) and how teams fared.
The rankings are based upon how many games the draft pick has played, Pro Bowl appearances, first-team All-Pro selections and awards like MVP and Rookie of the Year. We also factored in how much the team has won during the five years, because players on losing teams tend to have an easier path to playing time.
Here are the rankings from best to worst with last year’s ranking in parentheses:
1. Indianapolis Colts (4)
Pro Bowlers: 3
Best Pick: Darius Leonard (2018, second round)
Worst Pick: Quincy Wilson (2017, 2nd)
GM Chris Ballard has done a tremendous job building up the Colts roster. They have had seven first-team All-Pro selections among the players drafted in this time frame. Quenton Nelson, Leonard and Jonathan Taylor are all great picks. Now, Ballard just has to figure out the quarterback.
2. Baltimore Ravens (1)
Pro Bowlers: 5
Best Pick: Lamar Jackson (2018, 1st)
Worst Pick: Hayden Hurst (2018, 2nd)
The Ravens continue to be one of the best drafting teams in the NFL under GM Eric DeCosta. The 2018 class included Jackson, Orlando Brown and Mark Andrews, who all became Pro Bowlers.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (12)
Pro Bowlers: 5
Best Pick: T.J. Watt (2017, 1st)
Worst Pick: Justin Layne (2019, 3rd)
Watt has become one of the best defensive players in football, and the Steelers got him with the 30th-overall pick. They have some high-level talent to put around whoever ends up being their new quarterback.
4. Buffalo Bills (16)
Pro Bowlers: 5
Best Pick: TreDavious White (2017, 1st)
Worst Pick: Harrison Phillips (2018, 3rd)
I give White a slight edge over Josh Allen because he has been All-Pro at his position, but the Bills deserve kudos for taking Allen in 2018 when other teams screwed up the quarterback choice. Giants fans must hope new GM Joe Schoen brings some of Buffalo’s drafting acumen to New York.
5. San Francisco 49ers (7)
Pro Bowlers: 4
Best Pick: George Kittle (2017, 5th)
Worst Pick: Reuben Foster (2017, 1st)
San Francisco has talent all over its roster thanks to some great drafting by GM John Lynch. The 49ers landed Deebo Samuel (second round), Kittle (fifth round) and Fred Warner (third round) outside of the first round.
6. Dallas Cowboys (11)
Pro Bowlers: 4
Best Pick: Micah Parsons (2021, 1st)
Worst Pick: Taco Charlton (2017, 1st)
Three of the four first-round picks in this period have made a Pro Bowl. Parsons looks as if he will be a long-term great player and CeeDee Lamb and Trevon Diggs are a great 1-2 punch from the 2020 draft.
7. Los Angeles Chargers (14)
Pro Bowlers: 3
Best Pick: Justin Herbert (2020, 1st)
Worst Pick: Forrest Lamp (2017, 2nd)
Herbert looks as if he’ll be a top quarterback in the NFL for a long time. The first-round pick last year, Rashawn Slater, made the Pro Bowl as a rookie. The Chargers have been on the verge of being a playoff team for a few years, but play in a brutal division.
8. Minnesota Vikings (21)
Pro Bowlers: 3
Best Pick: Dalvin Cook (2017, 2nd)
Worst Pick: Mike Hughes (2018, 1st)
Minnesota fired Rick Spielman after the season, but he did not do a bad job drafting in Minnesota. The Vikings had 57 draft picks in this span, more than any other team. Justin Jefferson leads a 15-man 2020 class that could be the foundation for the team.
9. New Orleans Saints (3)
Pro Bowlers: 3
Best Pick: Alvin Kamara (2017, 3rd)
Worst Pick: Rick Leonard (2018, 4th)
New Orleans has had a league-low 29 picks over the past five years, and it is hard to criticize many of them. The 2017 class was transformative, with Marshon Lattimore, Ryan Ramczyk and Kamara, but they have had no Pro Bowlers since that class.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (31)
Pro Bowlers: 6
Best Pick: Tristan Wirfs (2020, 1st)
Worst Pick: Justin Evans (2017, 2nd)
Tom Brady has been the biggest reason for Tampa Bay’s turnaround over the past two years, but the team has also found some nice, young players in the draft. Vita Vea, Chris Godwin, Devin White, Wirfs and Antonie Winfield have all been key pieces of the Buccaneers.
11. Cleveland Browns (10)
Pro Bowlers: 2
Best Pick: Myles Garrett (2017, 1st)
Worst Pick: Baker Mayfield (2018, 1st)
The Mayfield pick looked good for a little while, but the Browns decided to move on to Deshaun Watson this offseason, making the No. 1-overall pick in 2018 look like a big miss. Watson will have talent around him from several years of good drafting in Cleveland.
12. Green Bay Packers (18)
Pro Bowlers: 3
Best Pick: Aaron Jones (2017, 5th)
Worst Pick: Jordan Love (2020, 1st)
Green Bay has hit on plenty of picks over the past five years. The Love pick remains baffling since Aaron Rodgers is still going. Maybe Love will become a good player, but right now that looks like a wasted first-round pick.
13. Kansas City Chiefs (2)
Pro Bowlers: 3
Best Pick: Patrick Mahomes (2017, 1st)
Worst Pick: Breeland Sparks (2018, 2nd)
The Chiefs fell in our rankings this year after the 2016 class with Tyreek Hill and Chris Jones was removed. Kansas City has had 30 picks in the past five years, the second-fewest in the NFL. Mahomes is an all-time great pick, and they have drafted some solid starters, if not superstars, in that time.
14. Seahawks (13)
Pro Bowlers: 3
Best Pick: D.K. Metcalf (2019, 2nd)
Worst Pick: Malik McDowell (2017, 2nd)
Seattle was missing first-round picks in two of these years after making trades. The 2021 class has just three players in it. Russell Wilson hid a lot of the issues with the Seattle roster. Now that he’s gone, GM John Schneider and coach Pete Carroll are going to have to restock the talent.
15. Detroit Lions (19)
Pro Bowlers: 4
Best Pick: Kenny Golladay (2017, 3rd)
Worst Pick: Teez Tabor (2017, 2nd)
Detroit lands a little higher on this list than expected when you base it on the results. But it shows that other factors, such as coaching, health and schedule, factor in wins and losses. The Lions have not drafted any superstars, but do have some solid starters from these drafts.
16. Cincinnati Bengals (29)
Pro Bowlers: 3
Best Pick: Ja’Marr Chase (2021, 1st)
Worst Pick: John Ross (2017, 1st)
Cincinnati surprised everyone by winning the AFC last year. The surprising run was a credit to Duke Tobin and the Bengals front office, which has added a lot of talent in the draft lately. The Bengals have had 49 picks, the second-most in the NFL, over the five years. Chase and Joe Burrow could be the best WR-QB duo in the sport for the next decade.
17. Arizona Cardinals (15)
Pro Bowlers: 2
Best Pick: Budda Baker (2017, 2nd)
Worst Pick: Josh Rosen (2018, 1st)
Arizona has nailed some picks, such as Baker, one of the best safeties in football, in the second round in 2017, Christian Kirk in the second round in 2018 and Kyler Murray with the No. 1-overall pick in 2019. They lose a lot of points with the Rosen pick, which was a wasted first rounder.
18. Miami Dolphins (5)
Pro Bowlers: 1
Best Pick: Minkah Fitzpatrick (2018, 1st)
Worst Pick: Charles Harris (2017, 1st)
Ultimately, this stretch for Miami will be defined by how well Tua Tagovaila works out. When you take a quarterback in the first round, that is the big bet. Jaylen Waddle looks like a good pick from last year, and they have landed some solid starters.
19. Carolina Panthers (27)
Pro Bowlers: 2
Best Pick: Christian McCaffrey (2017, 1st)
Worst Pick: Greg Little (2019, 2nd)
McCaffrey is a special player, but he has struggled to stay on the field in recent years. D.J. Moore and Brian Burns are really good picks. Like many teams, Carolina needs to figure out the quarterback spot.
20. Los Angeles Rams (17)
Pro Bowlers: 1
Best Pick: Cooper Kupp (2017, 3rd)
Worst Pick: Gerald Everett (2017, 2nd)
The defending Super Bowl champs have gone about team-building in an interesting way, going all out for veterans and trading away picks. They have not had one first-round pick during this span. But the Rams have still drafted well with what they’ve had. Other than Kupp, they have not drafted stars, but they have drafted good football players.
21. Chicago Bears (6)
Pro Bowlers: 3
Best Pick: Eddie Jackson (2017, 4th)
Worst Pick: Mitchell Trubisky (2017, 1st)
The Bears had just 31 picks in the five years, the third fewest in the NFL. They did not have first-round picks in 2019 or 2020 after trading for Khalil Mack. Trubisky looked good for a little while, but Chicago is now rebuilding with a new regime.
22. Las Vegas Raiders (32)
Pro Bowlers: 3
Best Pick: Maxx Crosby (2019, 4th)
Worst Pick: Gareon Conley (2017, 1st)
Las Vegas usually makes some head-scratching moves on draft day. Their 2020 class looks terrible, with first-round picks Henry Ruggs and Damon Arnette gone for the team for non-football reasons. Crosby, Josh Jacobs and Henter Renfrow make the 2019 class a keeper, though.
23. New England Patriots (25)
Pro Bowlers: 2
Best Pick: Mac Jones (2021 , 1st)
Worst Pick: N’Keal Harry (2019, 1st)
Bill Belichick has drafted two All-Pro special teams players in Braxton Berrios and Jake Bailey, but I don’t think Patriots fans will celebrate that. Jones had a strong rookie season, and he can push New England up this list if he keeps playing well.
24. Washington Commanders (28)
Pro Bowlers: 2
Best Pick: Chase Young (2020, 1st)
Worst Pick: Dwayne Haskins (2019, 1st)
There are a lot of misses on the list of Washington picks from the past five years. Young is a force when healthy. Terry McLaurin and Jonathan Allen have been productive players, but not many others have been.
25. Tennessee Titans (9)
Pro Bowlers: 3
Best Pick: A.J. Brown (2019, 2nd)
Worst Pick: Isaiah Wilson (2020, 1st)
The removal of the 2016 draft class, which featured Derrick Henry, Kevin Byard and Jack Conklin, drops the Titans in the rankings this year. The 2019 class is a good one, but the past two don’t look strong.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars (8)
Pro Bowlers: 2
Best Pick: D.J. Chark (2018, 2nd)
Worst Pick: Leonard Fournette (2017, 1st)
Jacksonville had a few good years of drafting in the middle of the past decade, which led to their run to the AFC title game. That ended, though, and the Jaguars have stumbled in their recent drafts. That is why the have the No. 1 pick for the second straight year.
27. Philadelphia Eagles (30)
Pro Bowlers: 1
Best Pick: Josh Sweat (2018, 4th)
Worst Pick: Sidney Jones (2017, 2nd)
The Eagles have drafted a few decent starters but not much else. Jalen Reagor looks like a terrible pick, and the jury is still out on Jalen Hurts. Howie Roseman has a Lombardi Trophy to his credit, but he’s going to take some heat if they don’t draft better.
28. Atlanta Falcons (20)
Pro Bowlers: 1
Best Pick: Kyle Pitts (2021, 1st)
Worst Pick: Takkarist McKinley (2017, 1st)
Pitts looks as if he could be a special player for the Falcons. A.J. Terrell also should be a good cornerback for many years. After that, there is a lot of mediocrity in their drafting.
29. New York Jets (23)
Pro Bowlers: 1
Best Pick: Jamal Adams (2017, 1st)
Worst Pick: Sam Darnold (2018, 1st)
Adams keeps the Jets from being in the basement. No team below them in these rankings has drafted an All-Pro player. Other than that, though, it has been bleak. Last year’s class has promise, but it’s too soon to know how it will work out.
30. Houston Texans (26)
Pro Bowlers: 1
Best Pick: Deshaun Watson (2017, 1st)
Worst Pick: Kahale Warring (2019, 3rd)
Houston looked as if it had a quarterback for the next decade-plus in Watson. Now, he’s gone. Nick Caserio has a massive rebuilding on his hands.
31. Denver Broncos (22)
Pro Bowlers: 2
Best Pick: Courtland Sutton (2018, 2nd)
Worst Pick: Drew Lock (2019, 2nd)
Last year’s class, led by Patrick Surtain II and Javonte Williams, showed promise, but the classes before that are weak. The arrival of Russell Wilson should help Jerry Jeudy and Sutton.
32. New York Giants (24)
Pro Bowlers: 2
Best Pick: Saquon Barkley (2018, 1st)
Worst Pick: Daniel Jones (2019, 1st)
Dave Gettleman is gone, which is good news for Giants fans. Gettleman drafted terribly. Jones still may prove his doubters wrong, but he looks like the wrong pick for the Giants in 2019. Barkley still has a chance to get his career back on track.
Best drafts
2017: Saints
2018: Colts
2019: Rams
2020: Vikings
2021: Cowboys
Best picks
2017: T.J. Watt, Steelers
2018: Darius Leonard, Colts
2019: Kyler Murray, Cardinals
2020: Justin Herbert, Chargers
2021: Micah Parsons, Cowboys
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